Commenter “John” on Megan McArdle’s blog gives reason for optimism:
Oil is priced in dollars. The dollar has had its strongest week in five years. The US economy is still growing at a modeate pace while Europe seems to be stagnating again. The dollar has been very much undervalued in the last two years and that is starting to be corrected. The undervalued dollar created a commodity bubble of which oil is the most high profile commodity. Meanwhile, countries that do not subsidize their gas have started to make lasting changes in behavior and consumption. This combined with a return to sanity on oil exploration (remember part of the current price is the projection of future supply) has started to drop the natural price of oil. Bottomline, $140 oil was not the “end of the age of cheap oil” or a sign of the pending peak oil apocolypse but a commodity bubble driven by the falling dollar, high short term consumption and collective angst over future supplies. The bubble is bursting. I expect oil to continue to drop and within a year be back in the $70 range.
I certainly hope so.
WHILE YOU'RE HERE...